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Do you think SpaceX will deliver on Falcon 9, Dragon, manned Dragon, etc?

Or do you forsee failure in any particular way? What failiures are there to be concerned about?

Falcon 1 took three flights to get right, and well done to the SpaceX team.

I happen to be a huge fan, and am betting on success, but I am wondering if people see pitfalls for them, that are worth discussing.

(Aside from the usual, its rocket science, its hard!)

Edit: So I read the FAQ and realize this as originally phrased was subjective, let me rephrase to make it more appropriate.

edited Oct 21 at 0:56

Adam Hollidge♦♦
165●8

asked Oct 20 at 17:22

Geoffrey Carman
111●4

Adam Hollidge · Answer 1 · 2009-10-21 12:26:35Z UTC

I believe that at this point they have the confidence and wherewithal to be a long-term contender. Some amount of highly public, catastrophic failure is hard to avoid in the launch vehicle business, but they've clearly learned a lot in the past two or three years. Their biggest risks, as I see them, are:

not actually delivering on their promise of lower cost per kilogram
losing agility as a company.

Elon Musk has a long term vision that goes beyond low-Earth orbit, and he seems determined, so the company is not without direction.

In the near term, the success of Falcon 9 and of NASA's Constellation program (with its impending test of the Ares-1X rocket) could significantly impact the company. Many believe Constellation is doomed, largely due to budget and policy. SpaceX says they are not going after the same objectives as the Constellation program, but if it is abandoned more attention and dollars might shift to commercial launch providers. If you're interested in this, have a listen to the 9/22/09 Space Show podcast (mp3 link), an interview with Larry Williams, SpaceX's VP of Strategic Relations.

What pitfalls does SpaceX face that might be avoided?

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